{"events": [{"year": 2007, "title": "反向尽调", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_reverse_dd", "outcome": "你优雅地退出了竞价。三个月后那家公司估值缩水一半，拿了大基金的钱却被当成了提款机。你的判断力再次得到了验证。Network+8。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2008, "title": "带新人", "eventId": "ev_new_mentor_junior", "outcome": "你给了他三个项目BP，让他自己写投资意见书。第一份惨不忍睹，但第三份已经能看到亮点了。你省了时间，他也学到了真东西。Track Record+2，Network+4，Health-1。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2009, "title": "行业群里的口水战", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_wechat_group", "outcome": "你的回复被截图转到了好几个群里。甚至有媒体来采访你这篇文章的观点。你成为了这场争论中最理性的声音。Track Record+2，Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2010, "title": "创始人的礼物", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_founder_gift", "outcome": "你写了一封详细的反馈邮件。创始人后来告诉别人——你的反馈让他修改了产品的三个关键设计。Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2011, "title": "大佬的一句话", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_mentor_advice", "outcome": "你在下一个项目中花了更多时间去了解创始人的性格和决策模式，而不仅仅是他的PPT。这个转变让你的deal质量显著提升。Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2012, "title": "家里的电话", "eventId": "ev_new_family_pressure", "outcome": "你给妈妈看了一个你投的项目上了新闻的报道。她虽然不太懂，但很开心。'那我跟王阿姨说，我儿子投的公司上电视了。'Health+5，Network+2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2013, "title": "估值下调", "eventId": "ev_new_down_round", "outcome": "你咬牙参与了down round。估值虽然低了，但你的股份占比提高了。创始人对你的信任度大增。AUM-8，Track Record+2，Network+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2014, "title": "春节的问候", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_cny", "outcome": "你给mentor、一个你信任的创始人、和一个长期支持你的LP分别发了不一样的新年祝福。他们的回复让你觉得——在这个浮躁的行业里，真诚依然是一种竞争优势。Network+8。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2015, "title": "朋友圈风波", "eventId": "ev_chain_founder_wechat", "outcome": "你发了一条微信：\"最近压力大？出来喝一杯？\"创始人秒回：\"不好意思，不是说你。\"但你注意到他删除了那条朋友圈。Network+5。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2016, "title": "TS拉锯战", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_ts_drama", "outcome": "你礼貌地退出了竞争。\"估值不是一切\"——你对创始人说。两周后创始人又联系了你：对方在尽调中发现了问题撤回了TS。你现在有了谈判的主动权，Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2017, "title": "猎头的电话", "eventId": "ev_new_headhunt_2", "outcome": "你告诉猎头：如果要我，我要带两个分析师一起。猎头说这需要额外审批。两周后对方同意了——你的议价能力让现平台也开始重新评估你的价值。Network+8，Track Record+1。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2018, "title": "创始人失联", "eventId": "ev_chain_arrest", "outcome": "你第一时间组建了危机小组，冻结了公司账户，保住了剩余资产。虽然损失了大部分投资，但避免了最坏的情况。AUM-6，Health-7。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2019, "title": "年终面谈", "eventId": "ev_new_performance_review", "outcome": "你问了这个问题。老板愣了一下，然后花了30分钟讲了他当年最得意的deal。你发现他说的标准和你想的不一样——他要的不是赚钱的deal，是能上教科书的deal。Track Record+2，Health-2。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2020, "title": "异常沉默", "eventId": "ev_warn_radio_silence", "outcome": "你又等了两个月。最终坏消息从别人嘴里传到了你耳朵里。你的拖延让情况变得更糟，Health-2，Track Record-5。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2021, "title": "前辈的忠告", "eventId": "ev_health_mentor_health", "outcome": "你和一位心理咨询师聊了一次。虽然你一开始觉得\"做VC的看什么心理医生\"，但一小时的谈话让你意识到——你承受的压力远远超过了你的想象。Health+6。你开始定期去。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2022, "title": "行业峰会", "eventId": "ev_career_conference", "outcome": "你的发言被媒体引用为\"本次峰会最有价值的观点之一\"。会后有三家基金的合伙人主动来交换名片。Network+14，Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2023, "title": "副业诱惑", "eventId": "ev_new_side_hustle", "outcome": "你拒绝了。朋友说：'你太保守了。'但你知道分心是VC的大忌。Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2024, "title": "出圈的表情包", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_viral_meme", "outcome": "你在朋友圈转发了那个表情包，还自己配了一段自嘲的话。没想到这条朋友圈获得了行业里几十个合伙人的点赞——你的人设突然变成了\"接地气的投资人\"。Network+8。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2025, "title": "供应商危机", "eventId": "ev_new_supply_chain_2", "outcome": "你翻了通讯录，找到三个可能替代的供应商。其中一个一周内就出了样品。创始人说你是救命的。Network+5，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2026, "title": "体检报告", "eventId": "ev_health_gym", "outcome": "你每天早上六点起床跑步，戒掉了加班时的泡面和啤酒。三个月后复检，指标大幅改善。Health+12。当然——少了很多社交饭局，Network-3。", "choiceIndex": 0}], "investments": [{"year": 2006, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2006_travel", "outcomeText": "烧钱获客无法盈利，携程直接封杀其爬虫，流量归零。", "projectName": "畅游旅行", "maturityYear": 2008, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2007, "amount": 11, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2008_ecom", "outcomeText": "在经济下行期保持增长，站稳细分赛道，被阿里收购回报3倍。", "projectName": "聚购网", "maturityYear": 2009, "returnMultiple": 3.0795890469755975}, {"year": 2008, "amount": 8, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2007_novel", "outcomeText": "在男频/都市品类积累忠实作者群，被阅文集团收购回报3倍。", "projectName": "云上学堂", "maturityYear": 2009, "returnMultiple": 2.981809544933494}, {"year": 2009, "amount": 13, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2010_map", "outcomeText": "地图数据采集成本太高，融资烧完时仍无盈利模式。", "projectName": "途行导航", "maturityYear": 2010, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2010, "amount": 7, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2009_browser", "outcomeText": "被阿里巴巴收购整合进UC体系回报6倍。", "projectName": "极光浏览器", "maturityYear": 2012, "returnMultiple": 5.527075594067574}, {"year": 2011, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "gaming", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2010_mobilegame", "outcomeText": "创意枯竭+大厂碾压，再也没有做出第二款成功的游戏。", "projectName": "灵跃游戏", "maturityYear": 2012, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2012, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2011_social", "outcomeText": "细分用户群稳定，被腾讯收购补强QQ回报4倍。", "projectName": "星辰网络", "maturityYear": 2014, "returnMultiple": 10.080321194976568}, {"year": 2013, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "o2o", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2014_bike", "outcomeText": "行业整合时被合并进头部平台换股退出回报2倍。", "projectName": "迅风单车", "maturityYear": 2016, "returnMultiple": 4.3531116351136}, {"year": 2014, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "o2o", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2013_food", "outcomeText": "补贴大战打不起，校园市场被巨头分食。", "projectName": "味达外卖", "maturityYear": 2015, "returnMultiple": 1.15739867342636}, {"year": 2015, "amount": 11, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2015_overseas_tool", "outcomeText": "在亚马逊卖家群体中建立口碑ARR过亿回报3倍。", "projectName": "越境通", "maturityYear": 2018, "returnMultiple": 2.282010315307416}, {"year": 2016, "amount": 24, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2016_newretail", "outcomeText": "生鲜损耗+冷链物流+门店租金=不可持续的烧钱模型，资金断裂。", "projectName": "鲜达生活", "maturityYear": 2017, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 10, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2015_knowledge", "outcomeText": "在职业技能培训细分做到第一回报3倍。", "projectName": "蝉鸣课堂", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 2.3817908133147285}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 31, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_chip2", "outcomeText": "流片后性能不达预期，二次流片耗尽融资。", "projectName": "星际半导体", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 1.1960163749754429}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2019_semi", "outcomeText": "产品在细分领域落地被华为哈勃战略投资回报3倍。", "projectName": "芯元芯片", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 11.012889460029546}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2020_privacy", "outcomeText": "政府数据开放平台核心供应商回报3倍。", "projectName": "暗盾科技", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 4.635905047715642}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 28, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2018_ev", "outcomeText": "电池安全事故+大规模召回，公司资金链断裂。", "projectName": "电动未来", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2021_ev_battery", "outcomeText": "量产工艺迟迟无法突破，融资消耗殆尽被低价收购。", "projectName": "锂能科技", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 0.8457698810845614}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 32, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2021_autopilot", "outcomeText": "矿区自动驾驶商业化超预期，成为细分龙头回报4倍。", "projectName": "驾途科技", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 5.101764055984095}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2021_cobot", "outcomeText": "工业巨头推出更具性价比的协作方案，创业公司无力竞争。", "projectName": "协智制造", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 0.8824990060180427}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2020_data_mid", "outcomeText": "被阿里收购——他们需要你的政企客户关系回报10倍。", "projectName": "数澜数据", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 8.727066453704612}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 15, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2021_pet", "outcomeText": "宠物医院监管趋严，合规成本大幅上升侵蚀利润。", "projectName": "宠一生", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 0.8341606931760908}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 15, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2021_saas_hr", "outcomeText": "客户流失率高于预期，SaaS模式在中国水土不服。", "projectName": "人智云", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 1.0915324148721994}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2020_medai", "outcomeText": "在肺结节和眼底筛查两大场景建立壁垒回报4倍。", "projectName": "睿医科技", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 5.225004009206313}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 23, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2018_group_buying", "outcomeText": "巨头补贴战烧不起，退守区域市场估值腰斩。", "projectName": "近邻优选", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 1.1435628656297925}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2024_embodied", "outcomeText": "具身智能的ChatGPT时刻迟迟不来，烧完钱后估值腰斩。", "projectName": "灵巧机器人", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0.8754048772156239}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 23, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2023_aidrug", "outcomeText": "AI发现的新分子在临床二期数据惊艳，被辉瑞高价授权回报30倍。", "projectName": "创药科技", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 21.461044146213684}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2023_aisafety", "outcomeText": "OpenAI/Anthropic自研安全方案成为行业标准，第三方工具被边缘化。", "projectName": "校准智能", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_text", "outcomeText": "大模型太烧钱A轮后无法继续融资，团队被大厂收编收回成本。", "projectName": "语思科技", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 1.1564382848329844}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2024_overseas_ai", "outcomeText": "在短剧出海细分赛道建立垄断地位回报5倍。", "projectName": "AI远航计划", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 6.538794486159459}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_rival", "outcomeText": "DeepSeek开源多模态模型后技术路线被完全覆盖。", "projectName": "言思的对手——万象智能", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_overseas", "outcomeText": "地缘政治导致主要市场被封，被迫收缩估值缩水。", "projectName": "远洋电商", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 1.1177949076518416}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 34, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_fusion", "outcomeText": "在政府项目和科研经费中勉强生存，商业回报遥遥无期。", "projectName": "核聚动力", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 0.8207852944731713}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2024_synbio", "outcomeText": "量产放大遇到瓶颈，产出效率远低于实验室水平。", "projectName": "创世纪元", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 1.039521453436464}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2024_web3", "outcomeText": "中国明确禁止加密货币相关业务，国内业务全部关停。", "projectName": "链启未来", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 1.1552937830798329}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "pending", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2025_embodied2", "outcomeText": "被发那科的新产品线直接竞争，价格和技术双重碾压。", "projectName": "灵巧对手——铁臂科技", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2025_aicustomer", "outcomeText": "大模型幻觉问题始终无法根治，大客户POC后均未签单。", "projectName": "语小助", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 20, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "pending", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2024_metaverse", "outcomeText": "没有人真的想在VR里开会。这是典型的\"技术找需求\"的失败。", "projectName": "幻元空间", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2024_digitalhuman", "outcomeText": "品牌定制数字人+私域运营模式跑通回报3倍。", "projectName": "影分身", "maturityYear": 2028, "returnMultiple": 4.608782940180972}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "pending", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2022_quantum", "outcomeText": "MIT团队实现量子纠错突破后，你的技术路线被碾压。", "projectName": "量子飞跃", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 0}]}