{"events": [{"year": 2007, "title": "尽调惊魂", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_dd_find", "outcome": "你果断退出了。创始人发了一条阴阳怪气的朋友圈——你没有回复。三个月后这家公司被媒体曝光财务造假，所有参与投资的VC都在忙着灭火。你逃过一劫，Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2008, "title": "你当年Pass掉的项目", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_missed_unicorn", "outcome": "你深吸一口气，关掉了文件。这个行业就是这样——你记住的不是你错过了什么，而是你抓住了什么。继续看下一个BP。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2009, "title": "大单来袭", "eventId": "ev_chain_bigclient", "outcome": "你调动了自己的所有关系，帮公司招到了关键人才、对接了合作伙伴。项目交付成功，公司迈上了新台阶。Network+8，Track Record+6。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2010, "title": "FOMO发作", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_fomo", "outcome": "你决定不做被动决策。两周后你发现那个deal并没有close——FA只是在制造紧迫感。你保住了自己的节奏。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2011, "title": "出圈的表情包", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_viral_meme", "outcome": "你在朋友圈转发了那个表情包，还自己配了一段自嘲的话。没想到这条朋友圈获得了行业里几十个合伙人的点赞——你的人设突然变成了\"接地气的投资人\"。Network+8。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2012, "title": "出租车里的BP", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_taxi_pitch", "outcome": "你从机场到登机口的路上看完了这份BP。项目本身一般，但你在BP里看到了一个被你忽略的细分需求。这个灵感后来启发你投了一个不错的deal。Network+5。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2013, "title": "LP突击拜访", "eventId": "ev_career_lp_visit", "outcome": "LP沉默了很久，最后说了一句：\"我欣赏你的诚实。\"他没有撤资——这次没有。但你从他眼神里看到了犹豫。Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2014, "title": "招人季", "eventId": "ev_new_team_expansion", "outcome": "你招了第二选择。虽然没有第一名那么亮眼，但踏实肯干。Track Record+1，Network+3。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2015, "title": "监管约谈", "eventId": "ev_new_regulatory_call", "outcome": "你联系了同赛道其他几家的投资人，联名给监管写了一份行业说明。监管态度有所缓和。虽然不能完全解除风险，但争取了调整时间。Network+6，Track Record+1，Health-3。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2016, "title": "行业群里的口水战", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_wechat_group", "outcome": "你的回复被截图转到了好几个群里。甚至有媒体来采访你这篇文章的观点。你成为了这场争论中最理性的声音。Track Record+2，Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2017, "title": "年度体检", "eventId": "ev_new_annual_checkup", "outcome": "你花了2万做了一个全面深度筛查。甲状腺结节是良性的，但查出了一个早期的胃部问题——及时处理了。AUM-2，Health+10。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2018, "title": "小道消息", "eventId": "ev_new_market_rumor", "outcome": "你根据消息调整了投资策略。两个月后政策出台，你的portfolio几乎没有受影响。Track Record+3，Network+3。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2019, "title": "带新人", "eventId": "ev_new_mentor_junior", "outcome": "你给了他三个项目BP，让他自己写投资意见书。第一份惨不忍睹，但第三份已经能看到亮点了。你省了时间，他也学到了真东西。Track Record+2，Network+4，Health-1。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2020, "title": "LP的考验", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_poker", "outcome": "你用教科书般的打法赢了一些小局。LP后来评价你：\"风格稳健，但有点缺乏想象力。\"他们的意思可能是褒也可能是贬。AUM+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2021, "title": "创始人的礼物", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_founder_gift", "outcome": "你写了一封详细的反馈邮件。创始人后来告诉别人——你的反馈让他修改了产品的三个关键设计。Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2022, "title": "深夜的自我怀疑", "eventId": "ev_new_midlife_crisis", "outcome": "你写了3000字。写完后你发现，你之所以做VC，是因为你喜欢在别人看不到的地方看到价值。你把文章存在了草稿箱里。Health+4，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2023, "title": "总部视察", "eventId": "ev_new_vip_visit", "outcome": "你把汇报任务分给了团队。有个平时不显眼的Analyst在汇报时表现得异常出色，视察官印象深刻。你发现了一个被忽视的人才。Network+6，Track Record+1。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2024, "title": "周年庆", "eventId": "ev_new_anniversary", "outcome": "你和一个入行时认识的朋友喝了杯酒。聊到凌晨两点，你们都感慨万千。Health-3，Network+6。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2025, "title": "FA的BP轰炸", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_fa_bp", "outcome": "你收到了一条来自FA的跟进微信：\"张总，BP看完了吗？这轮马上要close了，现在不投就来不及了。\"你没有回复。这是你今年做得最正确的决定。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2026, "title": "第一次投委会", "eventId": "ev_career_first_ic", "outcome": "你的pre得到了三个合伙人一致点头。mentor拍了拍你的肩膀。Track Record+4，Health-5。", "choiceIndex": 0}], "investments": [{"year": 2006, "amount": 8, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2005_portal", "outcomeText": "四大门户同时推出类似功能，创业公司毫无还手之力。", "projectName": "潮汐门户", "maturityYear": 2007, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2007, "amount": 8, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2007_cafe", "outcomeText": "网吧数量持续萎缩，SaaS收入逐年下降勉强保本。", "projectName": "筑巢平台", "maturityYear": 2010, "returnMultiple": 0.964250807929784}, {"year": 2008, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2008_adnetwork", "outcomeText": "移动时代来临，PC流量持续萎缩。", "projectName": "流量聚", "maturityYear": 2011, "returnMultiple": 0.9557009004056454}, {"year": 2009, "amount": 8, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2009_mobilead", "outcomeText": "巨头入场碾压，公司差异化不足，回报接近成本。", "projectName": "指媒传媒", "maturityYear": 2011, "returnMultiple": 0.9945132221095264}, {"year": 2010, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2009_appstore", "outcomeText": "手机厂商预装商店成为主流，第三方商店边缘化。", "projectName": "应用集市", "maturityYear": 2013, "returnMultiple": 1.0152789127081634}, {"year": 2011, "amount": 11, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2011_med", "outcomeText": "医院关系维护成本极高，扩展速度远慢于预期。", "projectName": "康路通", "maturityYear": 2013, "returnMultiple": 0.974888466577977}, {"year": 2012, "amount": 10, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2012_office", "outcomeText": "功能被钉钉/企微完全覆盖，客户零成本迁移。", "projectName": "云协科技", "maturityYear": 2014, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2013, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2017_saas_crm", "outcomeText": "SaaS订阅模式在国内变现困难，增长不及预期勉强保本。", "projectName": "客云端", "maturityYear": 2014, "returnMultiple": 1.1107976943254472}, {"year": 2014, "amount": 24, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2016_newretail", "outcomeText": "生鲜损耗+冷链物流+门店租金=不可持续的烧钱模型，资金断裂。", "projectName": "鲜达生活", "maturityYear": 2015, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2015, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2016_crossborder", "outcomeText": "被阿里巴巴国际站收购作为海外B端入口回报8倍。", "projectName": "购通全球", "maturityYear": 2017, "returnMultiple": 6.805767838489264}, {"year": 2016, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2017_edu", "outcomeText": "在线1v1模式口碑极佳但规模化困难回报2倍。", "projectName": "蒜头编程", "maturityYear": 2018, "returnMultiple": 2.7619838920701296}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 10, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2017_insurtech", "outcomeText": "大数据杀熟被315曝光，用户信任崩塌。", "projectName": "安保易", "maturityYear": 2018, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 31, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2019_chip2", "outcomeText": "在安防和自动驾驶领域找到杀手场景，被地平线收购回报25倍。", "projectName": "星际半导体", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 17.882692501433194}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_semi", "outcomeText": "技术路线验证但商业化缓慢，被产业链整合回报接近成本。", "projectName": "芯元芯片", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 0.9960840051993728}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2020_data_mid", "outcomeText": "数据中台概念退潮后需求断崖，项目制模式难以为继。", "projectName": "数澜数据", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 1.1171081157401206}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 20, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_overseas_game", "outcomeText": "本地化成本远超预期，一款大作的失败抹平了所有利润。", "projectName": "扬帆游戏工场", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 0.800429579615593}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 13, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2020_secondhand", "outcomeText": "在二手奢侈品品类做到头部，与闲鱼差异化竞争回报3倍。", "projectName": "旋旋圈", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 1.9522812446742317}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 28, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2018_ev", "outcomeText": "补贴退坡后单车成本飙升，定价失去竞争力。", "projectName": "电动未来", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 0.9370665946975352}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2020_privacy", "outcomeText": "开源框架成熟化后技术壁垒消失，创业公司被替代。", "projectName": "暗盾科技", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 29, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2018_consumer", "outcomeText": "在区域市场站稳保持盈利，被雀巢收购回报3倍。", "projectName": "活力伙伴", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 3.828462534688879}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2020_medai", "outcomeText": "医院预算收紧，采购决策链过长，商业化远低预期。", "projectName": "睿医科技", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 0.941976805496961}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 15, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2021_saas_hr", "outcomeText": "客户流失率高于预期，SaaS模式在中国水土不服。", "projectName": "人智云", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0.9473843281157316}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2022_quantum", "outcomeText": "MIT团队实现量子纠错突破后，你的技术路线被碾压。", "projectName": "量子飞跃", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2024_synbio", "outcomeText": "菌株在工业发酵罐中表现远不如培养皿——这是合成生物学最常见的死法。", "projectName": "创世纪元", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 28, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2025_lowalt", "outcomeText": "一起事故引发全社会对低空飞行安全的质疑，行业被监管冰封。", "projectName": "云翔科技", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 34, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2023_fusion", "outcomeText": "托卡马克装置爆炸——物理原因至今不明，公司关闭。", "projectName": "核聚动力", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 23, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_aidrug", "outcomeText": "临床数据不如预期，AI制药的光环褪去融资困难。", "projectName": "创药科技", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 0.923328075837344}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_code", "outcomeText": "大厂推出免费竞品，独立工具的生存空间被急剧压缩。", "projectName": "码力科技", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 0.9605124373920262}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_overseas", "outcomeText": "地缘政治导致主要市场被封，被迫收缩估值缩水。", "projectName": "远洋电商", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0.9574346791952848}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_rival", "outcomeText": "在视频理解和生成场景找到PMF回报5倍。", "projectName": "言思的对手——万象智能", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 12.35491563037969}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2024_web3", "outcomeText": "Token价格归零+黑客攻击盗走用户资产，团队解散跑路。", "projectName": "链启未来", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2025_aigc_video", "outcomeText": "大厂自研视频模型效果超越，创业公司的护城河不够深。", "projectName": "幻象科技", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 1.074680206924677}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2024_datalabel", "outcomeText": "GPT-5级别的合成数据质量远超人工，标注需求大幅萎缩。", "projectName": "标注先锋", "maturityYear": 2028, "returnMultiple": 1.1559097935445608}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 29, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_space", "outcomeText": "一次发射失败炸掉了全年的收入。", "projectName": "星际航天", "maturityYear": 2028, "returnMultiple": 0.953188183065504}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2025_embodied2", "outcomeText": "工业客户决策周期极长，烧钱速度跟不上签单速度。", "projectName": "灵巧对手——铁臂科技", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 1.1573602912947536}]}