{"events": [{"year": 2007, "title": "出租车里的BP", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_taxi_pitch", "outcome": "你从机场到登机口的路上看完了这份BP。项目本身一般，但你在BP里看到了一个被你忽略的细分需求。这个灵感后来启发你投了一个不错的deal。Network+5。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2008, "title": "招人季", "eventId": "ev_new_team_expansion", "outcome": "你招了一个在新能源行业干了15年的工程师。他看项目的角度和金融背景的人完全不同，补上了团队的短板。Track Record+2，Network+6。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2009, "title": "出圈了", "eventId": "ev_chain_viral", "outcome": "你帮公司紧急融资扩产。三个月后热度褪去，仓库里堆满了卖不出去的库存。但你及时止损的策略保住了核心资金。AUM+8，Health-5。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2010, "title": "大佬的一句话", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_mentor_advice", "outcome": "你在下一个项目中花了更多时间去了解创始人的性格和决策模式，而不仅仅是他的PPT。这个转变让你的deal质量显著提升。Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2011, "title": "榜单来了", "eventId": "ev_new_industry_ranking", "outcome": "你把不爽转化成了动力。下一个季度你的出单量翻了倍。Track Record+3，Health-3。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2012, "title": "搬办公室", "eventId": "ev_new_office_move", "outcome": "角落虽暗但安静。你的效率提升了，但同事们觉得你'不合群'。Track Record+2，Network-5。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2013, "title": "Carry的传说", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_carry_talk", "outcome": "大家心照不宣地笑了。在这个行业里，没有人真的会透露自己的carry——但每个人都想知道别人的。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2014, "title": "朋友圈风波", "eventId": "ev_chain_founder_wechat", "outcome": "你发了一条微信：\"最近压力大？出来喝一杯？\"创始人秒回：\"不好意思，不是说你。\"但你注意到他删除了那条朋友圈。Network+5。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2015, "title": "Mentor的告别", "eventId": "ev_career_mentor_leave", "outcome": "Mentor笑了笑，给了你三个LP的联系方式。\"这些都是信任我的人，现在我把他们交给你了。\"AUM+10，Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2016, "title": "TS被拒", "eventId": "ev_new_ts_rejection", "outcome": "你咬咬牙把估值提了20%。创始人犹豫了三天，最终签了。但你的AUM压力变大了——这笔投资必须成功。AUM-8，但Track Record+2（市场认可你的判断力）。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2017, "title": "接班人的烦恼", "eventId": "ev_career_succession", "outcome": "你的态度让创始合伙人很满意。他开始有意识地让你参与基金的战略决策——但也意味着更多的工作和更大的压力。AUM+15，Health-12。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2018, "title": "行业群里的口水战", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_wechat_group", "outcome": "你的回复被截图转到了好几个群里。甚至有媒体来采访你这篇文章的观点。你成为了这场争论中最理性的声音。Track Record+2，Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2019, "title": "体检报告", "eventId": "ev_health_gym", "outcome": "你每天早上六点起床跑步，戒掉了加班时的泡面和啤酒。三个月后复检，指标大幅改善。Health+12。当然——少了很多社交饭局，Network-3。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2020, "title": "副业诱惑", "eventId": "ev_new_side_hustle", "outcome": "你没有入伙，但投了5万块。半年后这个工具居然有了3000个付费用户。你开始认真考虑要不要全职。AUM-3，Track Record+2（跨界视野）。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2021, "title": "创立自己的基金", "eventId": "ev_career_fund", "outcome": "你摘下大平台的光环，在华贸租了一间小办公室，挂上了自己的基金招牌。你带走了经验和人脉，但管理规模直接砍半——你现在是自己的LP和GP。从此以后，你的每一笔投资，赢的翻倍，亏的也翻倍。这是自由的代价，也是自由的杠杆。AUM减半，后续投资收益与亏损均×2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2022, "title": "老股转让", "eventId": "ev_chain_secondary", "outcome": "你选择了等待。但一年后市场遇冷，IPO窗口关闭，那家公司的估值回落到了15亿。你错失了一个锁定回报的好时机。Track Record-5。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2023, "title": "技术突破", "eventId": "ev_chain_breakthrough", "outcome": "你以最快速度完成了追加投资的流程。三个月后公司的估值翻了五倍。AUM+15，Track Record+7。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2024, "title": "圈内丑闻", "eventId": "ev_network_gossip", "outcome": "LP听懂了你的暗示。当丑闻曝光时，你的LP是少数提前做了准备的。他对你的信任大幅提升。Network+8，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2025, "title": "小道消息", "eventId": "ev_network_leak", "outcome": "消息是真的——但等你验证完，最佳窗口期已经过去了。不过至少你没有在错误的信息上做出错误的决策。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2026, "title": "家里的电话", "eventId": "ev_new_family_pressure", "outcome": "你转了5万块给妈妈。她立刻给王阿姨发了一条语音：'我儿子刚给我转了5万块，说什么公务员有这个待遇吗？'你哭笑不得。AUM-3，Health+6。", "choiceIndex": 2}], "investments": [{"year": 2006, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2008_adnetwork", "outcomeText": "在游戏和电商垂直广告做到第一回报3倍。", "projectName": "流量聚", "maturityYear": 2008, "returnMultiple": 2.600931371706538}, {"year": 2007, "amount": 8, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2005_portal", "outcomeText": "在垂直领域积累忠实用户，广告收入稳定，被并购回报2倍。", "projectName": "潮汐门户", "maturityYear": 2008, "returnMultiple": 2.397018737182953}, {"year": 2008, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2005_sp", "outcomeText": "公司勉强盈亏平衡，但始终无法突破天花板，最终以成本价卖给了一家网游公司。", "projectName": "翼信互动", "maturityYear": 2010, "returnMultiple": 1.114331483654678}, {"year": 2009, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "gaming", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2010_mobilegame", "outcomeText": "稳定产出中等体量游戏，年利润过亿回报4倍。", "projectName": "灵跃游戏", "maturityYear": 2012, "returnMultiple": 4.4056185010657645}, {"year": 2010, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2011_social", "outcomeText": "用户增长到千万级停滞，商业化困难被低价收购。", "projectName": "星辰网络", "maturityYear": 2013, "returnMultiple": 1.0626529537141325}, {"year": 2011, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2009_appstore", "outcomeText": "被曝传播恶意软件，口碑崩塌，用户一夜跑光。", "projectName": "应用集市", "maturityYear": 2013, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2012, "amount": 13, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2011_cloud", "outcomeText": "在垂直行业做到极致，被阿里云收购回报25倍。", "projectName": "云鹏科技", "maturityYear": 2014, "returnMultiple": 19.321468023844066}, {"year": 2013, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2015_live", "outcomeText": "内容监管收紧+头部主播流失，营收腰斩后艰难保本。", "projectName": "燎原直播", "maturityYear": 2015, "returnMultiple": 0.8626865434460342}, {"year": 2014, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "o2o", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2013_food", "outcomeText": "食品安全事故+学生中毒事件，品牌崩塌。", "projectName": "味达外卖", "maturityYear": 2016, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2015, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2016_crossborder", "outcomeText": "在家具/灯饰/小家电三大品类做到第一回报3倍。", "projectName": "购通全球", "maturityYear": 2018, "returnMultiple": 2.5119057390466333}, {"year": 2015, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2017_saas_crm", "outcomeText": "钉钉上线竞品功能，生态合作伙伴秒变竞争对手。", "projectName": "客云端", "maturityYear": 2017, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2016, "amount": 16, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2017_blockchain", "outcomeText": "赶在监管禁令前完成合规转型，技术服务业务活了下来回报2倍。", "projectName": "链联科技", "maturityYear": 2019, "returnMultiple": 17.450676613301038}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2014_p2p", "outcomeText": "平台平稳运营至备案制落地，被持牌机构收购回报2倍。", "projectName": "鑫融金服", "maturityYear": 2019, "returnMultiple": 3.148942350000143}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 13, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2017_vr", "outcomeText": "VR热潮退去后客流断崖下跌，大量店面关停。", "projectName": "虚实互联", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 1.1463512560352684}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 28, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2018_ev", "outcomeText": "被顺丰战略投资+采购，锁定物流车赛道回报12倍。", "projectName": "电动未来", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 9.852132311165333}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2020_premade", "outcomeText": "在酸菜鱼和小龙虾两大单品做到品类第一回报3倍。", "projectName": "闲人厨房", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 3.3464212304796095}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2021_ev_battery", "outcomeText": "实验室数据无法在产线上复现——这是硬科技最常见的死法。", "projectName": "锂能科技", "maturityYear": 2019, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2019_semi", "outcomeText": "国产替代东风+技术突破，成功流片获国家大基金加持科创板上市回报30倍。", "projectName": "芯元芯片", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 21.75144664174877}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 20, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_overseas_game", "outcomeText": "本地化成本远超预期，一款大作的失败抹平了所有利润。", "projectName": "扬帆游戏工场", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 1.1346947744488718}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2020_privacy", "outcomeText": "在金融风控和医疗数据共享两大场景突破，被蚂蚁集团收购回报10倍。", "projectName": "暗盾科技", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 9.896331643266604}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2019_beauty", "outcomeText": "在细分品类建立口碑，被欧莱雅收购回报3倍。", "projectName": "花语纪", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 2.2728284958377483}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 15, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2021_pet", "outcomeText": "宠物医院监管趋严，合规成本大幅上升侵蚀利润。", "projectName": "宠一生", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 1.0909097224473954}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2020_data_mid", "outcomeText": "在政府和金融行业拿下大单回报4倍。", "projectName": "数澜数据", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 4.697430895830039}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2020_medai", "outcomeText": "疫情推动医疗AI加速落地，进入医保定价体系，科创板上市回报12倍。", "projectName": "睿医科技", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 9.06020972465165}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 31, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_chip2", "outcomeText": "流片后性能不达预期，二次流片耗尽融资。", "projectName": "星际半导体", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0.8754577478393912}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_aisafety", "outcomeText": "AI安全概念大于实质，企业买单意愿有限。", "projectName": "校准智能", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 1.0716295765712858}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_rival", "outcomeText": "训练一次模型烧掉一轮融资，算力成本吃掉所有想象空间。", "projectName": "言思的对手——万象智能", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 0.9909949849359692}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 28, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2025_lowalt", "outcomeText": "在物流无人机领域率先商业化回报5倍。", "projectName": "云翔科技", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 11.54966165334452}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2023_overseas", "outcomeText": "东南亚站稳脚跟稳扎稳打年利润过亿回报3倍。", "projectName": "远洋电商", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 4.871698062673676}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 23, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2023_aidrug", "outcomeText": "核心管线临床失败——这是制药行业每天都在发生的事，AI并没有改变概率。", "projectName": "创药科技", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_text", "outcomeText": "在垂直领域找到PMF被互联网巨头收购回报5倍。", "projectName": "语思科技", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 24.814272479228677}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2024_synbio", "outcomeText": "量产放大遇到瓶颈，产出效率远低于实验室水平。", "projectName": "创世纪元", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 1.082338678929955}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2024_digitalhuman", "outcomeText": "品牌定制数字人+私域运营模式跑通回报3倍。", "projectName": "影分身", "maturityYear": 2029, "returnMultiple": 5.08829196965089}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2024_web3", "outcomeText": "中国明确禁止加密货币相关业务，国内业务全部关停。", "projectName": "链启未来", "maturityYear": 2028, "returnMultiple": 0.8336249517276884}]}