{"events": [{"year": 2007, "title": "电梯演讲", "eventId": "ev_new_elevator_pitch", "outcome": "你用15秒描述了你对新能源赛道的判断。企业家点了点头：'有意思，把你的BP发给我。'电梯门开了，他走了。你感觉心跳加速。Network+12，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2008, "title": "小道消息", "eventId": "ev_new_market_rumor", "outcome": "你根据消息调整了投资策略。两个月后政策出台，你的portfolio几乎没有受影响。Track Record+3，Network+3。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2009, "title": "TS拉锯战", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_ts_drama", "outcome": "你礼貌地退出了竞争。\"估值不是一切\"——你对创始人说。两周后创始人又联系了你：对方在尽调中发现了问题撤回了TS。你现在有了谈判的主动权，Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2010, "title": "投资人日", "eventId": "ev_new_investor_day", "outcome": "你坦诚地分享了对该赛道的担忧。台下的创业者们纷纷点头。但你的那个pending项目创始人也在台下——他当场就给你发了消息。Track Record+4，Network-7。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2011, "title": "天上掉馅饼", "eventId": "ev_new_random_luck", "outcome": "你没有投。一年后这家公司估值翻了五倍。你狠狠地拍了一下桌子。Health-5。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2012, "title": "醉酒的创始人", "eventId": "ev_new_drunk_founder", "outcome": "你把创始人约到办公室，把昨晚的事情告诉了他。他沉默了很久，然后打开电脑给你看了真实的数据——比他说的好很多，但确实有些水分。你们达成了整改共识。Track Record+2，Network-3。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2013, "title": "核心出走", "eventId": "ev_chain_key_leave", "outcome": "你在公司旁边的咖啡馆跟CTO谈了四个小时。他最终同意留下——但你承诺的条件（包括加薪和期权）让公司burn rate又涨了。Health-7，AUM-4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2014, "title": "EMBA的诱惑", "eventId": "ev_new_emba", "outcome": "你交了60万学费。开学第一天就认识了三个LP和一个行业大佬。虽然周末全没了，但值得。AUM-6（学费），Network+15，Health-4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2015, "title": "朋友圈晒战绩", "eventId": "ev_new_moment_showoff", "outcome": "你没有晒合影，而是写了一篇800字的投资逻辑拆解。行业大佬转发并评论'有深度'，LP也觉得你很专业。Track Record+2，Network+3，Health-3（写了一晚上）。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2016, "title": "带新人", "eventId": "ev_new_mentor_junior", "outcome": "你给了他三个项目BP，让他自己写投资意见书。第一份惨不忍睹，但第三份已经能看到亮点了。你省了时间，他也学到了真东西。Track Record+2，Network+4，Health-1。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2017, "title": "监管约谈", "eventId": "ev_new_regulatory_call", "outcome": "你认真评估后认为风险太大。你建议创始人暂停业务、寻找合规路径。虽然短期内项目受挫，但避免了更大的麻烦。Track Record+2，Health-3。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2018, "title": "圈内丑闻", "eventId": "ev_network_gossip", "outcome": "LP听懂了你的暗示。当丑闻曝光时，你的LP是少数提前做了准备的。他对你的信任大幅提升。Network+8，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2019, "title": "标题党", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_media_misquote", "outcome": "朋友圈发出去后评论区更热闹了。有人支持你，有人说你此地无银。你意识到在社交媒体时代，解释就是二次传播，Network-5。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2020, "title": "Carry分配", "eventId": "ev_new_equity_review", "outcome": "你放弃了Carry的争夺，转而要求：以后1000万以下的项目你自己拍板。合伙人同意了——这比Carry更值钱。Track Record+3，Network-3。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2021, "title": "团建翻车", "eventId": "ev_new_team_dinner", "outcome": "你把手机调成了飞行模式。第二天回来发现天没有塌。Health+8。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2022, "title": "行业群里的口水战", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_wechat_group", "outcome": "你选择沉默。群里吵了两天就消停了——大家继续忙着发BP和约咖啡。在这个行业里，所有的争论到最后都会被新的deal冲淡。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2023, "title": "新闻联播", "eventId": "ev_chain_news", "outcome": "你和创始人连夜开会，制定了业务收缩和公关策略。虽然痛苦，但主动调整总比被动挨打好。AUM-6（业务缩水），但避免了更大的损失，Health-7。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2024, "title": "赛道转换", "eventId": "ev_new_track_switch", "outcome": "你一边维护原赛道的关系，一边开始看新赛道的项目。两边都没做到最好，但也没有完全失去任何一边。Track Record+1，Network+2，Health-5（双线作战的疲惫）。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2025, "title": "洗手间的偶遇", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_bathroom", "outcome": "他礼貌地点了点头，擦了手就走了。你意识到——在这种级别的投资人面前，你的项目根本不值一提。你错过了从他那里得到真正有价值建议的机会。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2026, "title": "董事席位", "eventId": "ev_new_board_seat", "outcome": "你安静地听了三次会议。发现董事会里有两个人的关系非常微妙。你决定保持中立。Network+3，Health-2。", "choiceIndex": 1}], "investments": [{"year": 2006, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2008_adnetwork", "outcomeText": "虚假流量问题被广告主集体诉讼，赔偿金拖垮了公司。", "projectName": "流量聚", "maturityYear": 2007, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2007, "amount": 8, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2005_portal", "outcomeText": "用户增长到百万级遇到瓶颈，资金耗尽前以成本价出让。", "projectName": "潮汐门户", "maturityYear": 2010, "returnMultiple": 0.8409444539807738}, {"year": 2008, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2006_search", "outcomeText": "Google退出中国后市场格局固化，公司转型企业搜索，勉力维持。", "projectName": "领航搜索", "maturityYear": 2011, "returnMultiple": 1.0357934830710294}, {"year": 2009, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2012_payment", "outcomeText": "在B端支付解决方案领域找到立足之地回报3倍。", "projectName": "易结付", "maturityYear": 2011, "returnMultiple": 4.925071379577275}, {"year": 2010, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2012_analytics", "outcomeText": "App开发者付费意愿极低，SaaS模式在中国水土不服。", "projectName": "数析科技", "maturityYear": 2011, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2011, "amount": 11, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2011_lbs", "outcomeText": "签到热度退潮后用户活跃度骤降，勉强转型但已失先机。", "projectName": "定位圈", "maturityYear": 2014, "returnMultiple": 1.1537280642427503}, {"year": 2012, "amount": 10, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2012_office", "outcomeText": "在钉钉发布前被阿里收购作为其技术底子回报10倍。", "projectName": "云协科技", "maturityYear": 2015, "returnMultiple": 7.941917452216149}, {"year": 2013, "amount": 10, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2017_insurtech", "outcomeText": "互联网保险新规出台，经纪牌照门槛提高。", "projectName": "安保易", "maturityYear": 2014, "returnMultiple": 1.0732899812050165}, {"year": 2014, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2017_saas_crm", "outcomeText": "企业微信和钉钉双平台布局，ARR突破5亿港股上市回报8倍。", "projectName": "客云端", "maturityYear": 2017, "returnMultiple": 7.823187930267305}, {"year": 2015, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2016_crossborder", "outcomeText": "在家具/灯饰/小家电三大品类做到第一回报3倍。", "projectName": "购通全球", "maturityYear": 2016, "returnMultiple": 2.418896581674926}, {"year": 2016, "amount": 16, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2015_ai", "outcomeText": "产品和销售遇到瓶颈增长放缓，被国内云厂商低价收购。", "projectName": "灵智科技", "maturityYear": 2019, "returnMultiple": 1.0021171624772252}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 11, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2015_overseas_tool", "outcomeText": "跨境平台封号潮席卷行业，客户批量流失。", "projectName": "越境通", "maturityYear": 2018, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 16, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2017_blockchain", "outcomeText": "赶在监管禁令前完成合规转型，技术服务业务活了下来回报2倍。", "projectName": "链联科技", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 28.47573385890573}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2014_p2p", "outcomeText": "监管风暴中平台清退，作为股东拿回本金。", "projectName": "鑫融金服", "maturityYear": 2019, "returnMultiple": 1.081708729825914}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 15, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2021_saas_hr", "outcomeText": "在互联网和科技行业占据头部份额，被北森收购回报3倍。", "projectName": "人智云", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 1.8986298295436423}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2019_beauty", "outcomeText": "代工厂被曝质量问题，品牌声誉崩塌，退货率飙升。", "projectName": "花语纪", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2020_privacy", "outcomeText": "政府数据开放平台核心供应商回报3倍。", "projectName": "暗盾科技", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 3.901142930262722}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2020_medai", "outcomeText": "医院预算收紧，采购决策链过长，商业化远低预期。", "projectName": "睿医科技", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 0.9452220124192536}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 20, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_overseas_game", "outcomeText": "本地化成本远超预期，一款大作的失败抹平了所有利润。", "projectName": "扬帆游戏工场", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 1.1425961973145604}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_lowcode", "outcomeText": "大厂免费化后付费客户流失，开源社区变现困难。", "projectName": "拼搭科技", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 0.975180478580296}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 19, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2020_data_mid", "outcomeText": "做了两年的中台项目被客户叫停——他们发现数据根本没打通。", "projectName": "数澜数据", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 22, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2021_toy", "outcomeText": "盲盒退潮+IP生命周期短，爆款之后再无爆款。", "projectName": "潮物星球", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 1.0919580535031856}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2019_semi", "outcomeText": "技术路线验证但商业化缓慢，被产业链整合回报接近成本。", "projectName": "芯元芯片", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 0.910448063351214}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 23, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2023_aidrug", "outcomeText": "CRO服务模式验证，为药企提供AI筛选服务稳定盈利回报4倍。", "projectName": "创药科技", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 6.909580454521347}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2024_digitalhuman", "outcomeText": "抖音开放数字人直播权限后需求爆发回报10倍。", "projectName": "影分身", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 7.910817376496269}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_aisafety", "outcomeText": "AI安全概念大于实质，企业买单意愿有限。", "projectName": "校准智能", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 1.0135203249752522}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 29, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2023_space", "outcomeText": "在遥感卫星星座组网中找到稳定订单回报4倍。", "projectName": "星际航天", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 16.960927648097275}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2025_aigc_video", "outcomeText": "视频生成赛道一夜之间变成红海，你的技术优势只维持了三个月。", "projectName": "幻象科技", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2024_overseas_ai", "outcomeText": "翻译质量被用户群嘲，品牌声誉一落千丈。", "projectName": "AI远航计划", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_text", "outcomeText": "大模型太烧钱A轮后无法继续融资，团队被大厂收编收回成本。", "projectName": "语思科技", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0.9536792372353377}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "pending", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2024_web3", "outcomeText": "在海外市场找到PMF，Token被币安上线回报30倍——但你在国内卖不了币。", "projectName": "链启未来", "maturityYear": 2030, "returnMultiple": 19.732020541615785}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2024_datalabel", "outcomeText": "在专业领域标注建立壁垒(医疗/法律/金融)回报3倍。", "projectName": "标注先锋", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 1.9982263956614763}]}