{"events": [{"year": 2007, "title": "出租车里的BP", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_taxi_pitch", "outcome": "你从机场到登机口的路上看完了这份BP。项目本身一般，但你在BP里看到了一个被你忽略的细分需求。这个灵感后来启发你投了一个不错的deal。Network+5。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2008, "title": "尴尬的圆桌", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_conference_panel", "outcome": "全场大笑。创始人拍了拍你的肩膀说：\"下次融资我第一个找你。\"虽然是个玩笑，但你赢得了在场所有人的好感。Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2009, "title": "春节的问候", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_cny", "outcome": "你给mentor、一个你信任的创始人、和一个长期支持你的LP分别发了不一样的新年祝福。他们的回复让你觉得——在这个浮躁的行业里，真诚依然是一种竞争优势。Network+8。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2010, "title": "大佬的一句话", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_mentor_advice", "outcome": "你在下一个项目中花了更多时间去了解创始人的性格和决策模式，而不仅仅是他的PPT。这个转变让你的deal质量显著提升。Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2011, "title": "家里的电话", "eventId": "ev_new_family_pressure", "outcome": "你给妈妈看了一个你投的项目上了新闻的报道。她虽然不太懂，但很开心。'那我跟王阿姨说，我儿子投的公司上电视了。'Health+5，Network+2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2012, "title": "创始人的礼物", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_founder_gift", "outcome": "你写了一封详细的反馈邮件。创始人后来告诉别人——你的反馈让他修改了产品的三个关键设计。Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2013, "title": "CEO的朋友圈", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_portfolio_ceo", "outcome": "他秒回了。你们聊了两个小时——原来他的联合创始人刚刚提了离职。你帮他分析了局面，他决定第二天跟联合创始人做最后一次深谈。后来联合创始人留了下来。Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2014, "title": "圈内丑闻", "eventId": "ev_network_gossip", "outcome": "LP听懂了你的暗示。当丑闻曝光时，你的LP是少数提前做了准备的。他对你的信任大幅提升。Network+8，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2015, "title": "IPO窗口期", "eventId": "ev_new_ipo_window", "outcome": "你选了增长最猛的项目。三个月后成功过会，你终于有了一个IPO案例。Track Record+6，Network+8，AUM+10。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2016, "title": "老股转让", "eventId": "ev_chain_secondary", "outcome": "你转让了30%的老股，收回了当初投资的12倍。LP非常满意——这是基金成立以来第一次有现金回报。AUM+20，Track Record+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2017, "title": "标题党", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_media_misquote", "outcome": "你花了一整天时间给每个被投公司的CEO打电话解释。他们大多表示理解——但有一个CEO说：\"我希望下次如果你要公开说什么，先告诉我们一声。\"Network+5，Health-2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2018, "title": "估值下调", "eventId": "ev_new_down_round", "outcome": "你没有跟投。三个月后项目回暖了，但你错过了最佳的补仓时机。Track Record-3。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2019, "title": "创始人崩溃", "eventId": "ev_chain_founder_burnout", "outcome": "你利用自己的人脉帮他找了一个运营出身的联合创始人，又帮他对接了两家战略投资方。公司活过来了，他把你当成了恩人。Network+10，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2020, "title": "Carry的传说", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_carry_talk", "outcome": "你坦诚的回答引来了两种反应——有人在笑，有人点了头。一位比你资深的合伙人私下说：\"能承认这一点，说明你有自知之明。大部分吹自己carry的人都在撒谎。\"Network+8。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2021, "title": "行业群里的口水战", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_wechat_group", "outcome": "你选择沉默。群里吵了两天就消停了——大家继续忙着发BP和约咖啡。在这个行业里，所有的争论到最后都会被新的deal冲淡。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2022, "title": "Carry分配", "eventId": "ev_new_equity_review", "outcome": "你放弃了Carry的争夺，转而要求：以后1000万以下的项目你自己拍板。合伙人同意了——这比Carry更值钱。Track Record+3，Network-3。", "choiceIndex": 2}, {"year": 2023, "title": "LP的考验", "eventId": "ev_anecdote_poker", "outcome": "你用教科书般的打法赢了一些小局。LP后来评价你：\"风格稳健，但有点缺乏想象力。\"他们的意思可能是褒也可能是贬。AUM+4。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2024, "title": "竞品突袭", "eventId": "ev_chain_rival", "outcome": "你和创始人花了一个周末重新定位。虽然市场空间缩小了，但找到了一片蓝海。公司活了下来。Track Record+4，Health-5。", "choiceIndex": 0}, {"year": 2025, "title": "行业峰会", "eventId": "ev_career_conference", "outcome": "你全程很少发言，但认真做了笔记。一位大佬注意到了你认真的态度，会后私下给了你一个deal的线索。Network+13。", "choiceIndex": 1}, {"year": 2026, "title": "电梯演讲", "eventId": "ev_new_elevator_pitch", "outcome": "你用15秒描述了你对新能源赛道的判断。企业家点了点头：'有意思，把你的BP发给我。'电梯门开了，他走了。你感觉心跳加速。Network+12，Track Record+2。", "choiceIndex": 0}], "investments": [{"year": 2006, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "pc_internet", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2005_im", "outcomeText": "功能被钉钉/企微免费覆盖，付费客户流失殆尽。", "projectName": "迅捷通", "maturityYear": 2009, "returnMultiple": 1.1204133717343212}, {"year": 2007, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "saas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2008_email", "outcomeText": "数据安全事件导致大客户集体解约。", "projectName": "翼邮", "maturityYear": 2008, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2008, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "gaming", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2008_game2", "outcomeText": "精品页游在细分玩家群中站稳，稳定盈利回报3倍。", "projectName": "烽烟游戏", "maturityYear": 2011, "returnMultiple": 2.812831548198592}, {"year": 2009, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "gaming", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2010_mobilegame", "outcomeText": "创意枯竭+大厂碾压，再也没有做出第二款成功的游戏。", "projectName": "灵跃游戏", "maturityYear": 2010, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2010, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2012_payment", "outcomeText": "支付宝和微信的二维码横扫市场，NFC路线被边缘化。", "projectName": "易结付", "maturityYear": 2012, "returnMultiple": 0.9997846748679876}, {"year": 2011, "amount": 8, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2010_reading", "outcomeText": "被掌阅收购，成为其UGC社区模块回报5倍。", "projectName": "书香阅读", "maturityYear": 2015, "returnMultiple": 4.610163422711194}, {"year": 2012, "amount": 5, "isLead": true, "sector": "mobile", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2012_push", "outcomeText": "华为/小米自建推送，第三方SDK被逐步替代。", "projectName": "信推网络", "maturityYear": 2013, "returnMultiple": 1.0166361422277987}, {"year": 2013, "amount": 16, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2017_blockchain", "outcomeText": "白皮书上的东西从来没做出来过。团队在巴厘岛团建后就再没回过办公室。", "projectName": "链联科技", "maturityYear": 2015, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2015, "amount": 10, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2017_insurtech", "outcomeText": "互联网保险新规出台，经纪牌照门槛提高。", "projectName": "安保易", "maturityYear": 2016, "returnMultiple": 1.0601506440900268}, {"year": 2016, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "ecommerce", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2016_newretail2", "outcomeText": "在社区店模型跑通后稳健扩张回报3倍。", "projectName": "果速达", "maturityYear": 2017, "returnMultiple": 2.947693742075935}, {"year": 2017, "amount": 22, "isLead": true, "sector": "o2o", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2013_taxi", "outcomeText": "补贴大战烧光融资，在合并谈判中筹码尽失勉强保本。", "projectName": "速达出行", "maturityYear": 2018, "returnMultiple": 0.8484460101462901}, {"year": 2018, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2020_medai", "outcomeText": "医院预算收紧，采购决策链过长，商业化远低预期。", "projectName": "睿医科技", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 1.0490053799003365}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2019_semi", "outcomeText": "国产替代东风+技术突破，成功流片获国家大基金加持科创板上市回报30倍。", "projectName": "芯元芯片", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 31.0185769514367}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 31, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2019_chip2", "outcomeText": "AI推理芯片在IoT场景量产落地回报4倍。", "projectName": "星际半导体", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 9.255981514211744}, {"year": 2019, "amount": 29, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2018_consumer", "outcomeText": "疫情冲击线下外卖利润薄，上市计划搁置估值缩水。", "projectName": "活力伙伴", "maturityYear": 2020, "returnMultiple": 0.9792596820741892}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 22, "isLead": true, "sector": "consumer", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2021_toy", "outcomeText": "核心设计师被挖走，IP储备枯竭，复购率崩塌。", "projectName": "潮物星球", "maturityYear": 2021, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2021_cobot", "outcomeText": "在3C电子装配场景大量部署回报3倍。", "projectName": "协智制造", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 3.1109054388245565}, {"year": 2020, "amount": 12, "isLead": true, "sector": "ai", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2020_privacy", "outcomeText": "技术很酷但客户不买单——隐私计算的ROI说不清楚。", "projectName": "暗盾科技", "maturityYear": 2022, "returnMultiple": 1.0906962658278645}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 26, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2021_ev_battery", "outcomeText": "实验室数据无法在产线上复现——这是硬科技最常见的死法。", "projectName": "锂能科技", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2021, "amount": 28, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2018_ev", "outcomeText": "补贴退坡后单车成本飙升，定价失去竞争力。", "projectName": "电动未来", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 0.8435739755630494}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 23, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_aidrug", "outcomeText": "临床数据不如预期，AI制药的光环褪去融资困难。", "projectName": "创药科技", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 1.061717136669904}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "fintech", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2024_web3", "outcomeText": "Token价格归零+黑客攻击盗走用户资产，团队解散跑路。", "projectName": "链启未来", "maturityYear": 2024, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2022, "amount": 9, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2023_aisafety", "outcomeText": "AI安全概念大于实质，企业买单意愿有限。", "projectName": "校准智能", "maturityYear": 2023, "returnMultiple": 0.8764381431043149}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "huge_success", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_rival", "outcomeText": "视觉+语言多模态能力被市场验证，被阿里高价收购回报40倍。", "projectName": "言思的对手——万象智能", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 31.391424945406616}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 25, "isLead": true, "sector": "semiconductor", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2022_quantum", "outcomeText": "MIT团队实现量子纠错突破后，你的技术路线被碾压。", "projectName": "量子飞跃", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2023, "amount": 14, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2024_overseas_ai", "outcomeText": "翻译质量被用户群嘲，品牌声誉一落千丈。", "projectName": "AI远航计划", "maturityYear": 2025, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2022_aigc_code", "outcomeText": "大厂推出免费竞品，独立工具的生存空间被急剧压缩。", "projectName": "码力科技", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 0.8712220559827983}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "overseas", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "failure", "projectId": "p_2023_overseas", "outcomeText": "TikTok在关键市场被禁，公司一夜之间失去90%流量来源。", "projectName": "远洋电商", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0}, {"year": 2024, "amount": 18, "isLead": true, "sector": "healthcare", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2024_synbio", "outcomeText": "与华熙生物战略合作，代工+自有品牌双轮驱动回报4倍。", "projectName": "创世纪元", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 5.3187703028088436}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2024_datalabel", "outcomeText": "GPT-5级别的合成数据质量远超人工，标注需求大幅萎缩。", "projectName": "标注先锋", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0.8893339998088777}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 17, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "pending", "outcome": "moderate_success", "projectId": "p_2024_digitalhuman", "outcomeText": "品牌定制数字人+私域运营模式跑通回报3倍。", "projectName": "影分身", "maturityYear": 2027, "returnMultiple": 4.0545984206255525}, {"year": 2025, "amount": 21, "isLead": true, "sector": "aigc", "status": "resolved", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2025_aicustomer", "outcomeText": "一个AI客服对客户说出了不该说的话，引发舆情危机。", "projectName": "语小助", "maturityYear": 2026, "returnMultiple": 0.9430662285536529}, {"year": 2026, "amount": 28, "isLead": true, "sector": "new_energy", "status": "pending", "outcome": "breakeven", "projectId": "p_2025_lowalt", "outcomeText": "适航认证进展缓慢，烧钱速度远超预期估值下修。", "projectName": "云翔科技", "maturityYear": 2029, "returnMultiple": 1.1028651364147664}]}